TAMRMS#: B06
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CGISC Rec - Solar Farm Business Case
Presented by: Councillor Watkins
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RECOMMENDED MOTIONS
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1. That $200K be funded from the stabilization reserve to support the preliminary and detailed design requirements of the full-scale Solar Farm.
2. That Administration provide an update to Council, upon the completion of the detailed design of the Solar Farm, by Q2 2021.
3. That a borrowing bylaw be brought forward to support the implementation of the presented Solar Farm Business Case in 2021.
4. That the back third of the Badger Lands to be allocated to support the long-term development of solar as a green industry within the City.
5. In 2021, Administration be directed to bring back a report to rescind all previous Council motions pertaining to the Badger Lands that are not consistent with dedication of those lands to development of a solar power industry in St. Albert.
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PURPOSE OF REPORT
The purpose of this report is to bring to Council recommended motions arising from an item on the Agenda of the July 13, 2020 meeting of the Community Growth & Infrastructure Standing Committee.
BACKGROUND AND DISCUSSION
Photovoltaic ("PV") electricity systems create electricity directly from sunlight absorbed by semiconductor materials. The use of PV as an electricity supply source is rapidly growing, both globally and throughout Canada.
PV produces electricity from renewable solar radiation with no emissions of pollutants to air or water while in operation. When the emissions from the manufacturing, installing and maintenance of a PV system are included, the total life-cycle emissions of greenhouse cases and air pollutants per kilowatt-hour produced are very low in comparison with fossil fuel fired electricity generation. The total life-cycle emissions of greenhouse gases from PV are estimated to be between 25 and 50 grams of CO2 equivalent per kilowatt-hour, compared with 900 to 1100 g CO2eq/KWh for coal-fired electricity.
Because PV generators are modular, scalable, have no moving parts, and generate no noise or emissions when in use, they are will-suited to be placed in a wide variety of locations throughout the region. PV is effective throughout both southern and northern Alberta that has sky exposure and not subject to shading.
Conceptually, when the information is compiled for a mid-scale solar development, a number of assumptions have to be incorporated into the technical model in order to inform the high level financial model.
Many of these details become substantially more refined as the detailed design proceeds, including specific panel efficiencies based on the designed angle in relation to the location chosen within the City of St. Albert, any loses of the system.
To estimate the output from a solar PV system, the system efficiency and the surface area are multiplied by the incident energy and the number of operating days/year (or subset of the number of operating hours of sunlight). System efficiency consists of module efficiency, times inverter/balance of system efficiency, to provide the overall efficiency. Conceptually, Administration has used a 13% efficiency that has been documented using older technologies in scientific literature. Although during subsequent stages of the project this number would be refined and likely increased based the on the use of new technology, incorporating optimized design parameters.
According to National Resources Canada, the average solar system in Alberta can produce 1276 kWh of electricity per KW of solar panels per year. On average the solar irradiance throughout Alberta is described in the attached tables.
When solar is both conceptually modeled and further modeled at the detailed design stage, a number of conservative assumptions are utilized and become refined as further data is delineated. One of them is the solar index attributed to the location within Alberta, that the array will be placed the annual predicted number of hours that can be reasonably attributed to solar use. This incorporates both the number of daylight hours in any given month and the type of weather that is reasonably predicted. Subsequent assumptions that are required to be refined as a project is better defined include: the efficiency of the panels, the refractive angle of design, any shadowing effects, anticipated wind patterns and movement of snow off melting panels to optimize the generation rates in the winter, losses due to connection distances, losses due to inverters, and many more.
Administration has utilized conservative assumptions based on provincial and federal design tables for solar development.
Charts and graphs are provided by the Canadian Government to support this baseline calculations with a factor of safety built into the data to provide a conservative nature in the calculation. The attachment provides a high level table of the average hours of sunlight throughout Alberta (Environment Canada). The modelling software that compiles the conceptual work provides variable outputs based on seasonal changes and incorporates a complex algorithmic model. It considers geography, weather, technologies, and distances. This provides a much more realistic program that can be actualized in reality, but does require substantial refinement through feasibility, and detailed design.
Throughout the feasibility and design components of the project, Administration will be examining the high, low and average electricity output, and anticipated attributed revenues. These scenarios cannot further be developed at this stage, but requires certified consultants to complete this work, with access to the detailed modelling software. These will provide the necessary data output to the Q2 report to Council for further consideration.
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Report Date: August 17, 2020
Committee: Community Growth & Infrastructure Standing Committee